Our quarterly reports offer concise market reviews and portfolio recommendations, reflecting our analysis of current market risks and opportunities.

Global equities (MSCI ACWI Index in USD) declined 3.2% during Q1 with mixed and highly volatile returns across geographies. International stocks performed strongly in January and February buoyed by expectations for global growth expansion, coupled with emerging markets exposure to picks and shovels AI themes (semiconductors in Korea and Taiwan) while US large-cap equities were flat due to technology sector weakness as investors increasingly scrutinized hyperscalers’ massive capex growth plans. However, global markets declined swiftly during March due to the US-Iran conflict and the resultant Strait of Hormuz closure accompanied by surging energy prices (oil prices increased from 60/barrel to 110/barrel with bouts of extreme volatility), significant shipping disruption, and revived inflation concerns. Following the recently announced US-Iran ceasefire, global equity markets have appreciated 5.3% through April 8, 2026, and have clawed back much of the March decline.

Both global equities and fixed income appreciated strongly during Q4 and delivered impressive returns for full year 2025. Tariff uncertainty continued to abate with the impact on inflation and corporate earnings much lower than initially feared. US economic growth continued to rebound strongly following a Q1 lull, buoyed by resilient consumption and booming AI capex growth. However, the US labor market has cooled substantially and is currently characterized as a low hire / low fire environment, which led the Fed to cut interest rates three times (75bps in aggregate) since September. Internationally, economic growth has stabilized in Europe and Canada, and the outlook appears brighter with significant fiscal policy spending likely to accelerate over 2026 and beyond.

After a volatile first half marked by tariff uncertainty, Q3 2025 delivered strong gains across global markets as trade tensions abated and AI enthusiasm resurged. However, stretched valuations, concentrated equity exposure, and massive AI capital spending now present meaningful risks. Our report examines how these dynamics shaped public and private market performance, evaluates the sustainability of AI-driven growth, and provides strategic guidance for navigating an environment characterized by high expectations and elevated uncertainty.

Global equities, as measured by the ACWI Index in USD, appreciated 11.5% in Q2 and are up 10.1% YTD. Equities (especially US markets) experienced significant volatility during the quarter. The ACWI Index swiftly declined by 10.1% from March-end through April 8th following the April 2nd Liberation Day tariff announcement (the S&P 500 declined by 15.0% during that same peri od). However, global equities rallied 17.4% (and the S&P 500 rallied by over 25% from intra-day lows) through June-end.

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