Shorter-term View
Our report revisits vital issues outlined in previous updates, including moderating inflation, slowing economic growth, and AI’s role in market performance. We also address China’s economic outlook, evolving geopolitical risks, and the potential impacts of the upcoming U.S. presidential election
Macroeconomic Conditions
Global economic conditions indicate a resilient U.S. economy, though signs of a slowdown are emerging. Canada’s growth has been modest but slightly above expectations, with projections of 1.2% for 2024 and 2.0% for 2025. Europe’s economy remains sluggish, with minimal growth, while China continu
Strategic Asset Allocation View (7-years)
Our 7-year forecasts consider several factors shaping the mid-term investment landscape, including mid-single-digit equity returns (6.0%-7.0%) and a gradual decline in interest rates. U.S. equities may see narrowing outperformance over international markets, while corporate profit margins face mixed
Capital Markets Executive Summary
Global equity markets advanced 6.6% in Q3, bringing YTD gains to 18.8% through early October, with emerging markets leading the way. Fixed income appreciated as interest rates fell, and alternative assets like hedge funds, private equity, and private credit posted positive returns. Our report explor
Special Topic: US Bank Exposure to Commercial Real Estate
US regional and community banks' exposure to commercial real estate (CRE) has come under scrutiny, with banks holding roughly 40% of the estimated $4.5 trillion of US CRE debt outstanding. $1.3 trillion of outstanding CRE debt is set to mature by year-end 2024, and there are concerns that properties
Actionable Investment Opportunities
We highlight actionable investment opportunities across various asset classes, including short-term US and Canadian government debt, high-yield bonds, private credit strategies, preferred and structured equity, venture debt, and new allocations to private equity. The secondary market for LP position
Alternatives & Private Investments
The HFRX Hedge Fund Index was flat in Q1 2023, with convertible arbitrage and credit strategies performing best while global macro/trend following strategies performed worst. Private real estate showed mixed results, and there are concerns regarding refinancing risk as substantial commercial real es
