Q4 Capital Markets Review
Global equities declined 1.0% in Q4 but rose 17.5% in CY 2024, driven by U.S. large-cap stocks (+24.5%) benefiting from strong earnings, economic resilience, and AI-driven tech gains. Fixed income struggled in Q4 as yields surged, though CY 2024 returns remained positive. High-yield bonds and levera
Capital Markets Executive Summary
Global equity markets continued to rise in Q2 2024, while exhibiting significant sectoral and regional trends. US large-cap stocks lead the charge, driven by robust corporate earnings and favorable inflation data. Growth stocks, particularly those linked to AI, outperformed. Our report explores thes
Strategic Asset Allocation View (7-years)
The 7-year outlook forecasts mid-single-digit returns for equities. With US equities at stretched valuations, profit growth will be pivotal with onshoring and lower labor flexibility versus AI-driven productivity gains as opposing factors. Government and investment grade bonds remain relatively attr
Macroeconomic Conditions
Global economic conditions reveal a slowdown in US economic growth, with cooling consumer spending, and resumed disinflation. Europe’s recovery remains fragile, while China’s growth lags expectations. Our analysis covers inflation trends, growth scenarios, and geopolitical impacts on market stab
Shorter-term View
Key issues and scenarios include the inflation trajectory, economic growth possibilities, and corporate earnings outlook. Our report also discusses AI adoption, geopolitical conflicts, and market reactions under various scenarios, from optimistic to pessimistic, resulting in a neutral tactical stanc
Equity Markets
We survey global equity market performance by geography, factors and sector, highlighting the strong results for US large cap stocks, particularly in the tech sector. The difference between market-cap and equal-weighted performance highlights the concentration now in the S&P 500 and the impact on va
