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Capital Markets Review Digital Archive

After a volatile first half marked by tariff uncertainty, Q3 2025 delivered strong gains across global markets as trade tensions abated and AI enthusiasm resurged. However, stretched valuations, concentrated equity exposure, and massive AI capital spending now present meaningful risks. Our report examines how these dynamics shaped public and private market performance, evaluates the sustainability of AI-driven growth, and provides strategic guidance for navigating an environment characterized by high expectations and elevated uncertainty.

Global equities, as measured by the ACWI Index in USD, appreciated 11.5% in Q2 and are up 10.1% YTD. Equities (especially US markets) experienced significant volatility during the quarter. The ACWI Index swiftly declined by 10.1% from March-end through April 8th following the April 2nd Liberation Day tariff announcement (the S&P 500 declined by 15.0% during that same peri od). However, global equities rallied 17.4% (and the S&P 500 rallied by over 25% from intra-day lows) through June-end.

Entering 2025, strong economic momentum gave way to heightened volatility as aggressive U.S. tariff actions disrupted markets and trade relationships. Our report reviews how these shifts impacted public and private markets, identifies actionable investment opportunities, and outlines strategic positioning for a more uncertain global environment.

Global equities declined 1.0% in Q4 but rose 17.5% in CY 2024, driven by U.S. large-cap stocks (+24.5%) benefiting from strong earnings, economic resilience, and AI-driven tech gains. Fixed income struggled in Q4 as yields surged, though CY 2024 returns remained positive. High-yield bonds and leveraged loans delivered solid returns for the year despite rising rates. Alternative assets, including hedge funds (+5.3%), private equity (+5.9%), and private credit, provided steady gains. With heightened geopolitical risks and potential volatility tied to U.S. policies, our report examines these trends and outlines portfolio adjustments for the evolving landscape.

Capital Markets Review PDF Archive

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